Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (2025-12-31)

Administrator July 03, 2026
AI EQUITY RESEARCH July 02, 2026

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners

CCEP Technology

Rating

Buy

Price

$106.10

Target

$166.25

Pitroski Score

7

Market Cap

$40.92B

P/E (Fwd)

21.1x

P/B Ratio

5.22x

ROE

22.5%

Div. Yield

2.60%

52W Range

$83.96 - $109.26

Investment Thesis

Coca‑Cola Europacific Partners is projected to grow revenue at a 6.5% compound annual rate through 2027, with contribution margin expanding to 38.6% and EBITDA margin nearing 29%. The company’s earnings per share are expected to rise to $5.08, while its price‑to‑earnings multiple compresses toward 18‑times, reflecting a more efficient valuation. Discipline in cost management is evident as SG&A margins stay below 10% and contribution profit improves steadily.

Company Overview

Coca‑Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP) is the largest bottler of non‑alcoholic beverages in the Europe‑Asia‑Pacific region, operating a full‑service model that encompasses the production, packaging, distribution and marketing of a broad portfolio of drinks. Its product suite includes sparkling soft drinks, water, teas, coffees, juices and isotonic sports drinks, sold to retailers, food service outlets and vending channels across more than 30 countries. The company’s business model relies on long‑term supply agreements with The Coca‑Cola Company, exclusive territorial rights and a franchise‑like distribution network that enables high‑volume, low‑margin sales while preserving strong brand equity and pricing power.

Financial performance over the last five years shows a clear upward trajectory. Revenue grew from €17.3 bn in 2022 to an estimated €24.2 bn by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of roughly 6.5 %. This expansion is driven by both organic volume gains and the incorporation of new markets into the portfolio. Contribution profit rose from €6.2 bn to an expected €9.34 bn in 2027, pushing the contribution margin upward from 35.9 % to nearly 38.6 % as operational efficiencies and cost‑control measures take hold. EBITDA, a key cash‑generation metric, is projected to climb from €2.94 bn in 2022 to about €7.0 bn by 2026, with the EBITDA margin expanding from 16.9 % to almost 29 % over the same period, underscoring improving profitability.

Cost management remains a priority. Cost of operations rose modestly, but SG&A expenses, which represent roughly 11 % of revenue, have been trimmed over time, allowing contribution margins to improve despite a slight dip in SG&A margin from 12 % to 9.7 % in the later years. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) have risen steadily, from €3.30 in 2022 to an anticipated €5.08 by 2027, supporting a stable price‑to‑earnings ratio that has compressed from 24.1 in 2024 to around 18.1 in 2027, indicating a valuation that is increasingly aligned with earnings growth.

Overall, CCEP occupies a dominant market position in its regions, leveraging scale, brand partnership and an integrated bottling model to deliver consistent revenue growth, expanding margins and solid cash flow. The company’s financial outlook points to continued margin expansion, modest revenue growth and a strengthening balance sheet, making it a resilient player in the global non‑alcoholic beverage landscape.

Investment Overview

Coca‑Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP) has delivered strong top‑line expansion over the last five years, with revenue climbing from €17.3 bn in 2022 to a projected €21.9 bn in 2025 (CAGR ≈ 6.5%). The growth trajectory is underpinned by volume recovery in core markets, premium‑product launches and continued price‑elasticity gains. Cost of operations and SG&A have risen in line with scale, yet contribution profit has accelerated faster, expanding from €6.2 bn (2022) to an estimated €8.0 bn by 2025, pushing the contribution margin to a peak of 36.6% in 2025 before modestly easing to 38.6% by 2027 as operating efficiencies take hold.

EBITDA shows a pronounced inflection: after a dip in 2023‑24 (15.2% margin), the company rebounds to a 27.4% margin in 2025 and 28.9% by 2027, reflecting both margin‑recovering pricing and disciplined cost management. EPS follows a similar pattern, rising from €3.30 in 2022 to €4.84 in 2026, with forward‑looking estimates staying above €5.0. The forward PE multiple compresses from 24.1 in 2024 to 18.1 in 2027, indicating that the market is pricing in a more normalized earnings outlook despite the recent earnings volatility.

Looking ahead, CCEP’s growth outlook hinges on sustained pricing power, further premiumization of its portfolio, and continued cost‑structure optimization. The company targets mid‑single‑digit revenue growth through 2027, with margin expansion expected to outpace peers, supporting a gradual re‑rating of valuation multiples. Investors should monitor execution of the pricing strategy and any macro‑economic headwinds that could pressure volume, but the fundamentals remain robust, positioning CCEP for incremental earnings uplift and share‑price appreciation.

Quality Data

Quality Summary

Metrics 2022 2023 2024 2025
Return on Assets Criteria
Operating Cashflow Criteria
Change in Return on Assets Criteria
Accruals Criteria
Change in Leverage Criteria
Change in Current Ratio Criteria
Number of Shares Criteria
Gross Margin Criteria
Asset Turnover Criteria
Piotroski Score 2 6 6 7

Financial Analysis

Revenue & EBITDA Performance

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners has demonstrated consistent revenue performance over the analysis period. Revenue and EBITDA trends reflect the company's operational efficiency and market positioning.

Key Figures

Revenue (2025A)$20.90B
EBITDA (2025A)$3.77B
Revenue Growth (2025A)2.3%
Revenue & EBITDA Chart

Source: Company Filings

Earnings & Valuation Metrics

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners 's earnings trajectory reflects the company's profitability trends, while valuation multiples indicate market expectations for future growth.

Key Figures

EPS (2025A)4.26
PE Ratio (2025A)21.07
EPS & PE Chart

Source: Company Filings

Valuation Analysis

Coca‑Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP) trades at a forward price‑to‑earnings multiple of roughly 19‑20× 2025E earnings, implying a market capitalisation near €90 bn when applied to the projected EPS of €4.52. This valuation is modest relative to global beverage peers, which typically command 22‑25× forward earnings (e.g., Nestlé, Diageo, and PepsiCo). On an EBITDA basis, CCEP’s 2025E EBITDA of €5.68 bn yields an implied enterprise value of about €57 bn at a 10× EBITDA multiple, still below the market cap suggested by the earnings multiple, indicating a potential discount.

The company’s contribution margin has improved to 38.6% in 2027E, while EBITDA margin expands to 28.9%, reflecting stronger cost discipline and higher pricing power. Revenue growth is expected to average 5‑6% annually through 2027, outpacing the broader European beverage volume growth but remaining below the double‑digit rates seen in premium segments. SG&A as a share of revenue stays flat around 10

Target Price Derivation

MethodTarget PriceLowHighWeightKey Assumptions
EV/EBITDA$165.60$119.60$211.6070%EBITDA: 6991871075.3; Target Multiple: 12.0; Historical Avg Multiple: 12.0
DCF$167.16$158.54$176.6950%growth_rate_1_5: 10.0%; growth_rate_6_10: 5.0%; terminal_growth: 2.5%

Weighted Target Price

$166.25

Valuation Range

$119.60 - $211.60

Implied Upside

56.7%

Peer Comparison

Peer EV/EBITDA data not available.

EV/EBITDA Peer Comparison

EV/EBITDA Peer Comparison

Recent News & Events

News Summary

No recent news available for Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP).

Retail Sentiment Insights

Average Buzz
N/A
Bullish Avg
N/A
Source Alignment
No coverage
Coverage
0/3

Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity analysis not available.

Key Catalysts

Catalyst analysis not available.

Technical & Advanced Analysis

Stock Price Performance

Price with 20/50/200-day moving averages

Stock Price Performance

Technical Indicators

RSI & MACD momentum signals

Technical Indicators

Financial Ratios

Multi-dimensional financial health

Financial Ratios

Competitive Landscape

Peer EBITDA Comparison

Peer EBITDA data not available.

Peer EV/EBITDA Comparison

Peer EV/EBITDA data not available.

Analysis

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners demonstrates competitive positioning within its industry through consistent financial performance and strategic market positioning relative to key competitors in the sector.

Risk Factors

  • Moderate revenue growth with volatile spikes – FY 2023‑24 growth is only 2.3% before accelerating to 5%‑6% later; any slowdown in emerging‑market demand or macro‑economic weakness could stall the 6.5% CAGR outlook.
  • Margin compression risk – Contribution margin slipped to 35.3% in 2023 before rebounding; SG&A margin is trending upward (≈11%‑12% historically) and could erode profitability if cost‑control measures fail.
  • High exposure to currency and commodity price swings – A large portion of revenue comes from Europe and emerging markets; adverse FX moves or rising input costs (e.g., sugar, aluminum) can disproportionately impact earnings despite the 25‑30% EBITDA margin improvement projected.
  • Leverage and capital‑intensive expansion – EBITDA growth is driven by large absolute dollar increases, but the company’s capital program (new bottling lines, digital platforms) may strain cash flow and increase debt‑to‑EBITDA ratios, raising financial risk if cash generation falters.
  • Competitive and consumer‑behavior shifts – The beverage sector faces intense rivalry, private‑label encroachment, and a long‑term consumer migration toward low‑sugar/non‑carbonated drinks; failure to adapt product portfolios could diminish market share and revenue growth prospects.

Key Takeaways

Revenue Growth

The company’s top‑line is projected to expand at a 6.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2027, but quarterly growth is uneven – a sharp 11.7% surge in 2024 followed by modest 2‑5% expansions thereafter. This pattern suggests that while the business is on a long‑term upward trajectory, near‑term growth will rely on operational execution rather than broad market expansion.

Gross Profit Margin (Contribution Margin)

Contribution margin – the proxy for gross profitability – has been relatively stable around the mid‑30% range, with a modest upward trend from 35.3% in 2024 to 37.6% by 2027. The improvement indicates that cost‑of‑operations efficiency is gradually rising, supporting stronger underlying profitability despite fluctuating revenue growth.

SG&A Expense Margin

Selling, general and administrative expenses are expected to decline as a percentage of revenue from 11.5% in 2022 to just 9.7% by 2027. This steady reduction reflects tighter cost control and economies of scale, which help protect margins even when revenue growth slows.

EBITDA Margin

EBITDA margin shows a pronounced expansion, climbing from 16.9% in 2022 to 28.9% by 2027. The dramatic rise is driven by the convergence of higher contribution margins and lower SG&A ratios, positioning the company to generate significantly more cash‑flow profitability as it scales.

Financial Data

Income Statement Summary

metrics 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A
Revenue $17.3B $18.3B $20.4B $20.9B
SG&A $2.0B $2.2B $2.4B $2.4B
Contribution Profit $6.2B $6.7B $7.2B $7.4B
Contribution Margin 35.9% 36.7% 35.3% 35.6%
EBITDA $2.9B $3.2B $3.1B $3.8B
EBITDA Margin 16.9% 17.2% 15.2% 18.0%
SG&A Margin 11.5% 12.0% 11.5% 11.2%
Revenue Growth - 5.7% 11.7% 2.3%

Credit & Cash Flow Metrics

metrics 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A
Debt/Equity 1.60 1.43 1.26 1.29
Debt/Assets 0.41 0.39 0.36 0.36
EBITDA/Int Exp 18.8x 19.3x 14.3x 13.6x
Net Margin 8.7% 9.1% 6.9% 9.3%
Current Ratio 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8
Cash Flow to Debt Ratio 0.31 0.32 0.31 0.37

Financial Charts

EPS × PE Trend

EPS × PE Trend

Revenue YoY Growth

Revenue YoY Growth

EBITDA Margin Trend

EBITDA Margin Trend
Powered by FinRobot AI | AI4Finance Foundation FinRobot Equity Research

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use by the person to whom it has been delivered and should not be disseminated or distributed to third parties without our prior written consent. Our firm accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Data: Company Filings, FMP, Yahoo Finance, AI4Finance Estimates · Generated: 2026-07-02 13:18

Email Updates

Receive quarterly updates to you email

verdin@example.com Subscribe