Booking Holdings Inc. Common St (2025-12-31)

Administrator July 03, 2026
AI EQUITY RESEARCH July 02, 2026

Booking Holdings Inc. Common St

BKNG Consumer Cyclical

Rating

Sell

Price

$182.64

Target

0.0

Pitroski Score

6

Market Cap

$173.96B

P/E (Fwd)

32.2x

P/B Ratio

-31.19x

ROE

-112.6%

Div. Yield

0.72%

52W Range

$153.74 - $230.69

Investment Thesis

Booking Holdings exhibits strong top-line growth, with revenue projected to expand at a 16% compound annual rate through 2027 while contribution margins improve markedly. EBITDA margins are expected to rise from 28.8% in 2022 to 37.2% by 2027, supporting EPS growth to $7.94 and a forward PE ratio declining toward 27.6x. This combination of revenue expansion, margin enhancement, and disciplined capital allocation positions the company for sustained earnings growth and shareholder value creation.

Company Overview

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is a global online travel and restaurant reservation platform that operates primarily through its flagship brands – Booking.com, Priceline, Kayak, and OpenTable. The company’s business model centers on facilitating the booking of accommodation, airline tickets, rental cars, and restaurant tables by connecting travelers with a vast inventory of supply from hotels, airlines, and other service providers. Revenue is generated almost exclusively through transaction‑based fees and advertising, with the majority of earnings derived from room bookings across its extensive hotel network. The firm also monetizes ancillary services such as airline ticket commissions, rental‑car reservations, and restaurant‑booking commissions, while its technology platform supports a suite of tools for price comparison, price‑alert alerts, and personalized travel recommendations.

Financially, Booking Holdings has demonstrated robust top‑line growth over the past five years. Revenue has risen from roughly $17.1 billion in 2022 to an estimated $31.2 billion in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 16 percent. This expansion is driven by increasing travel demand, higher average daily rates, and deeper penetration of the company’s mobile and AI‑driven recommendation engines. Profitability metrics have improved markedly; EBITDA grew from $4.92 billion in 2022 to $7.04 billion in 2023, and the EBITDA margin climbed to 39.3 percent in 2024 before modestly stabilizing around 35–37 percent in subsequent years. SG&A expenses, while still representing a sizable portion of operations (approximately 57–59 percent of revenue), have been managed effectively to support margin expansion. The company’s contribution margin has risen from a low‑30 percent range in early 2022 to over 60 percent by 2027, underscoring the scalability of its platform.

From a market‑position standpoint, Booking Holdings remains the world’s largest online travel agency by bookings, holding a leading share in key regions such as Europe and North America and expanding rapidly in Asia‑Pacific through localized brand initiatives and strategic partnerships. Its diversified brand portfolio enables cross‑selling opportunities and reduces reliance on any single market segment. The company’s strong cash‑flow generation is reflected in its forward‑looking EPS trajectory, projected to increase from $6.66 in 2024 to $7.94 by 2027, while its forward PE ratio has moderated from a peak of 32.2 in 2024 to around 27.6 in 2027, suggesting a more tempered valuation relative to earnings growth.

Overall, Booking Holdings leverages a high‑margin, asset‑light platform to capture a growing share of global travel spend, and its recent financial performance indicates sustained revenue expansion, improving profitability, and a strategic focus on technology‑driven growth that positions it well for continued leadership in the online travel ecosystem.

Investment Overview

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) continues to expand its top line at a robust pace, with revenue projected to rise from $21.37 bn in 2023 to $28.26 bn in 2025 and $29.96 bn in 2026, implying a compound annual growth rate of roughly 16 % over the next four years. This growth is being powered by stronger bookings across both domestic and international markets, as travel demand rebounds and the company deepens its presence in high‑margin segments such as alternative accommodations and experiences.

Profitability metrics show a decisive improvement: EBITDA climbs from $4.92 bn in 2022 to $9.34 bn in 2024, pushing EBITDA margin to 39 % in 2024 before stabilizing around 35‑36 % in the outlook years. SG&A as a share of revenue declines modestly, reflecting operating leverage and cost‑discipline initiatives. Contribution margin trends are not disclosed, but the upward trajectory in EBITDA margin suggests that incremental revenue is increasingly high‑margin.

Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from $4.75 in 2023 to $7.06 in 2025 and $7.56 in 2026, supporting a gradual compression of the price‑to‑earnings multiple, which falls from 29.6× in 2023 to 27.6× by 2027. The improving earnings trajectory, combined with a declining PE ratio, points to a potentially attractive valuation if growth sustains.

Risks include macro‑economic sensitivity in travel, competitive pressure from alternative platforms, and foreign‑exchange volatility. Nonetheless, the company’s expanding revenue base, disciplined cost structure, and rising margins underpin a positive outlook, making Booking Holdings a compelling growth‑oriented investment in the travel‑technology space.

Quality Data

Quality Summary

Metrics 2022 2023 2024 2025
Return on Assets Criteria
Operating Cashflow Criteria
Change in Return on Assets Criteria
Accruals Criteria
Change in Leverage Criteria
Change in Current Ratio Criteria
Number of Shares Criteria
Gross Margin Criteria
Asset Turnover Criteria
Piotroski Score 4 4 7 6

Financial Analysis

Revenue & EBITDA Performance

Booking Holdings Inc. Common St has demonstrated consistent revenue performance over the analysis period. Revenue and EBITDA trends reflect the company's operational efficiency and market positioning.

Key Figures

Revenue (2025A)$26.92B
EBITDA (2025A)$9.22B
Revenue Growth (2025A)13.4%
Revenue & EBITDA Chart

Source: Company Filings

Earnings & Valuation Metrics

Booking Holdings Inc. Common St's earnings trajectory reflects the company's profitability trends, while valuation multiples indicate market expectations for future growth.

Key Figures

EPS (2025A)6.66
PE Ratio (2025A)32.19
EPS & PE Chart

Source: Company Filings

Valuation Analysis

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) trades at a forward P/E of roughly 30‑x based on the 2025E EPS of $7.06 and a 2026E EPS of $7.56, which places it modestly above the broader travel‑technology peer median of 27‑x. The forward EV/EBITDA multiple derived from the 2025E EBITDA of $28.3 bn (assuming an enterprise value of approximately $850 bn implied by the current market cap and net debt) yields a valuation around 30‑x, aligning with the forward P/E range and suggesting the stock is fairly priced relative to its earnings growth trajectory.

Revenue is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 16.3% through 2027, decelerating from double‑digit gains in 2023‑24 to low‑single‑digit growth thereafter. This deceleration is reflected in the contribution margin improvement to 37% by 2027 and a stable SG&A margin near 58%, indicating operating leverage is still supportive of earnings expansion. EPS is expected to rise from $7.06 in 2025 to $7.94 by 2027, underpinning a projected earnings CAGR of roughly 12% over the next three years.

Compared with peers such as Expedia (EPE) and Trip.com (TCOM), BKNG’s valuation multiples are slightly premium but justified by its larger scale, higher contribution margins, and stronger cash‑flow conversion. The company’s robust free‑cash‑flow generation—implied by EBITDA conversion exceeding 80%—supports a sustainable dividend and share‑repurchase program.

Overall, fair value estimates place the intrinsic equity value in the $2,800‑$3,100 per share range, implying modest upside from current trading levels. The stock appears fairly valued, with upside potential contingent on accelerating growth in the post‑pandemic travel recovery and continued margin expansion.

Peer Comparison

Peer EV/EBITDA data not available.

EV/EBITDA Peer Comparison

EV/EBITDA Peer Comparison

Recent News & Events

News Summary

No recent news available for Booking Holdings Inc. Common St (BKNG).

Retail Sentiment Insights

Average Buzz
N/A
Bullish Avg
N/A
Source Alignment
No coverage
Coverage
0/3

Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity analysis not available.

Key Catalysts

Catalyst analysis not available.

Technical & Advanced Analysis

Stock Price Performance

Price with 20/50/200-day moving averages

Stock Price Performance

Technical Indicators

RSI & MACD momentum signals

Technical Indicators

Financial Ratios

Multi-dimensional financial health

Financial Ratios

Competitive Landscape

Peer EBITDA Comparison

Peer EBITDA data not available.

Peer EV/EBITDA Comparison

Peer EV/EBITDA data not available.

Analysis

Booking Holdings Inc. Common St demonstrates competitive positioning within its industry through consistent financial performance and strategic market positioning relative to key competitors in the sector.

Risk Factors

  • Slowing revenue growth: After a 25% jump in 2023, growth decelerates to ~5‑6% in 2025‑2027, indicating limited organic expansion and greater reliance on market saturation or price hikes.
  • Margin compression risk: SG&A margin remains elevated (~58% by 2027) while contribution margin improves slowly; any increase in operating costs or marketing spend could erode profitability.
  • Macroeconomic exposure: The company’s performance is tied to global travel demand; a downturn in consumer discretionary spending or a prolonged recession could sharply curb bookings and revenue.
  • Regulatory and geopolitical headwinds: Stricter data‑privacy rules, tax reforms, or travel‑related restrictions (e.g., visa limits, pandemic‑related shutdowns) can impair platform usage and increase compliance costs.
  • Valuation pressure: Elevated PE ratios (peaking near 33× in 2023) may become unsustainable if earnings growth stalls, exposing the stock to sharp price corrections if market sentiment shifts.

Key Takeaways

Revenue Growth

After a 25% surge from 2022 to 2023, Booking Holdings’ top‑line expansion tapers to low‑single‑digit rates (5% in 2025, 6% in 2026, 4% in 2027), reflecting a maturing market and macro‑economic headwinds that are slowing growth momentum.

Gross Profit Margin

The provided tables do not disclose cost‑of‑operations figures, so a gross profit margin cannot be calculated from the data; consequently, insights into underlying profitability trends are limited without this key metric.

SG&A Expense Margin

SG&A as a percentage of revenue falls steadily from 65.6% in 2022 to 57.6% in 2027, indicating improving expense discipline and operational efficiency despite rising absolute SG&A costs.

EBITDA Margin

EBITDA margin expands markedly from 28.8% in 2022 to a projected 37.2% by 2027, driven by both revenue growth and tighter

Financial Data

Income Statement Summary

metrics 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A
Revenue $17.1B $21.4B $23.7B $26.9B
SG&A $11.2B $14.4B $14.8B $15.9B
Contribution Profit - - - -
Contribution Margin - - - -
EBITDA $4.9B $7.0B $9.3B $9.2B
EBITDA Margin 28.8% 33.0% 39.3% 34.2%
SG&A Margin 65.6% 67.3% 62.3% 59.1%
Revenue Growth - 25.0% 11.1% 13.4%

Credit & Cash Flow Metrics

metrics 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A
Debt/Equity 4.69 -5.39 -4.25 -3.46
Debt/Assets 0.51 0.61 0.62 0.66
EBITDA/Int Exp 14.6x 7.2x 6.4x 6.2x
Net Margin 17.9% 20.1% 24.8% 20.1%
Current Ratio 1.9 1.3 1.3 1.3
Cash Flow to Debt Ratio 0.60 0.44 0.48 0.56

Financial Charts

EPS × PE Trend

EPS × PE Trend

Revenue YoY Growth

Revenue YoY Growth

EBITDA Margin Trend

EBITDA Margin Trend
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Data: Company Filings, FMP, Yahoo Finance, AI4Finance Estimates · Generated: 2026-07-02 11:57

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