Walmart Inc. (2026-01-31)

Administrator July 03, 2026
AI EQUITY RESEARCH July 02, 2026

Walmart Inc.

WMT Technology

Rating

Sell

Price

$108.82

Target

0.0

Pitroski Score

5

Market Cap

$872.95B

P/E (Fwd)

39.9x

P/B Ratio

8.76x

ROE

21.5%

Div. Yield

0.46%

52W Range

$93.62 - $134.20

Investment Thesis

Walmart is projected to grow revenue to over $825 billion by 2027, sustaining modest yet steady growth rates. Operating efficiency gains are evident as contribution and EBITDA margins expand while SG&A margins remain stable, supporting rising EBITDA and EPS of $3.27. The declining PE ratio reflects improving valuation, underscoring a resilient and financially strengthening outlook.

Company Overview

Walmart Inc. (ticker: WMT) is the world’s largest retailer, operating a global network of hyper‑markets, supercenters, discount stores, and wholesale clubs. Its business model revolves around offering a broad assortment of merchandise—ranging from groceries, apparel, and home electronics to pharmacy, automotive services, and financial products—at consistently low prices. The company generates revenue primarily through three segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam’s Club, with the U.S. segment accounting for roughly three‑quarters of total sales. Walmart’s strategy emphasizes everyday low pricing, scale economies, and an increasingly integrated omni‑channel experience that blends in‑store pickup, delivery, and online ordering.

Financially, the company shows steady top‑line growth. Revenue is projected to rise from $611.3 billion in 2023 to $825.5 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of about 5.3 %. Contribution margin improves from 24.1 % in 2023 to 27.9 % in 2027, indicating better cost control and higher profitability on each dollar of sales. EBITDA margin expands from 4.9 % to 9.5 % over the same period, while earnings per share are expected to climb from $1.43 to $3.27, supporting a gradual compression of the price‑to‑earnings multiple from roughly 47× in 2024 to 34× by 2027. Operating efficiency is evident in the declining SG&A margin, which falls from 20.8 % to 18.5 % (estimated) and a contribution profit that grows at a compound rate of roughly 7‑8 % annually.

Walmart’s market position remains dominant, especially in grocery and general merchandise, where it competes with national chains and discounters but also leverages its massive supply‑chain footprint to sustain price leadership. Recent performance highlights include robust revenue expansion, improving margins, and a disciplined capital allocation that returns cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. The company’s continued investment in technology—such as supply‑chain digitization, e‑commerce platforms, and omnichannel fulfillment—positions it to capture further growth in online grocery and home‑delivery markets. Overall, Walmart’s blend of scale, cost efficiency, and strategic enhancements to its digital and service offerings underpins its sustained financial resilience and competitive advantage.

Investment Overview

Walmart (WMT) continues to expand its top line at a steady pace, with projected revenue climbing from $611 billion in 2023 to $825 billion by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate of about 5.3 %. The growth is underpinned by a combination of domestic market share gains, continued strength in e‑commerce, and the rollout of new international initiatives that are expected to lift revenue growth to roughly 5‑6 % annually over the next few years.

Operating efficiency is improving. Contribution margin has risen from 24.1 % in 2023 to an anticipated 27.9 % by 2027, while EBITDA margin expands from 4.9 % to nearly 9.5 % over the same horizon. This reflects tighter cost control, higher contribution profit (growing from $147.6 billion to $230 billion), and a declining SG&A margin (from 20.8 % to around 20 %). As a result, EBITDA is projected to more than double, reaching $46.5 billion in 2026 before sustaining double‑digit growth thereafter.

Earnings per share are expected to increase from $1.43 in 2023 to $3.27 by 2027, supporting a falling price‑to‑earnings multiple that slides from 35.98 to 34.2 over the same period. The declining PE suggests the market is beginning to price in the company’s improved profitability and margin trajectory.

Overall, Walmart’s blend of modest top‑line growth, accelerating margin expansion, and rising EPS positions it as a defensive yet increasingly profitable play. Investors should monitor execution of international and digital initiatives, as well as any macro‑economic pressures that could affect consumer spending patterns. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with upside potential tied to continued margin improvement and sustained revenue growth.

Quality Data

Quality Summary

Metrics 2023 2024 2025 2026
Return on Assets Criteria
Operating Cashflow Criteria
Change in Return on Assets Criteria
Accruals Criteria
Change in Leverage Criteria
Change in Current Ratio Criteria
Number of Shares Criteria
Gross Margin Criteria
Asset Turnover Criteria
Piotroski Score 4 6 8 5

Financial Analysis

Revenue & EBITDA Performance

Walmart Inc. has demonstrated consistent revenue performance over the analysis period. Revenue and EBITDA trends reflect the company's operational efficiency and market positioning.

Key Figures

Revenue (2026A)$713.16B
EBITDA (2026A)$46.47B
Revenue Growth (2026A)4.7%
Revenue & EBITDA Chart

Source: Company Filings

Earnings & Valuation Metrics

Walmart Inc.'s earnings trajectory reflects the company's profitability trends, while valuation multiples indicate market expectations for future growth.

Key Figures

EPS (2026A)2.74
PE Ratio (2026A)39.87
EPS & PE Chart

Source: Company Filings

Valuation Analysis

Walmart’s current valuation reflects a forward price‑to‑earnings multiple of roughly 36 ×, driven by projected EPS of $3.11 for 2026 and a modestly expanding EBITDA margin that reaches 9.5 % by 2027. The company’s revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 5.3 % through 2027, supporting a steady increase in contribution profit and a contribution margin that climbs from 24.1 % in 2023 to 27.9 % in 2027. EBITDA is projected to rise from $30 bn in 2023 to $46.5 bn in 2026, translating into an EBITDA margin improvement from 4.9 % to 9.5 % over the same period. These operating efficiencies, combined with a relatively low SG&A

Peer Comparison

Peer EV/EBITDA data not available.

EV/EBITDA Peer Comparison

EV/EBITDA Peer Comparison

Recent News & Events

News Summary

No recent news available for Walmart Inc. (WMT).

Retail Sentiment Insights

Average Buzz
N/A
Bullish Avg
N/A
Source Alignment
No coverage
Coverage
0/3

Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity analysis not available.

Key Catalysts

Catalyst analysis not available.

Technical & Advanced Analysis

Stock Price Performance

Price with 20/50/200-day moving averages

Stock Price Performance

Technical Indicators

RSI & MACD momentum signals

Technical Indicators

Financial Ratios

Multi-dimensional financial health

Financial Ratios

Competitive Landscape

Peer EBITDA Comparison

Peer EBITDA data not available.

Peer EV/EBITDA Comparison

Peer EV/EBITDA data not available.

Analysis

Walmart Inc. demonstrates competitive positioning within its industry through consistent financial performance and strategic market positioning relative to key competitors in the sector.

Risk Factors

  • Slowing top‑line growth: Revenue growth is projected to decelerate from 6% (2024) to ~4% by 2027, indicating limited organic expansion and increased reliance on price‑driven gains rather than volume growth.
  • Margin compression risk: Despite modest improvements in contribution and EBITDA margins, SG&A margin remains elevated (~20%) and could pressure profitability if cost‑control initiatives fail to offset rising labor and logistics expenses.
  • Valuation pressure: The forward PE ratio stays elevated (≈35‑38×) even as EPS grows, implying the market expects sustained high growth; any slowdown in earnings could trigger sharp price corrections.
  • Cost‑structure volatility: Operating costs (Cost of Operations) are rising faster than revenue in early forecast years, creating a risk that profit margins could erode if expense growth outpaces revenue gains.
  • Competitive and macro‑economic exposure: Walmart’s performance is tightly linked to consumer spending trends and intense competition from discounters and e‑commerce platforms; adverse macro conditions or aggressive pricing wars could further squeeze margins and market share.

Key Takeaways

Revenue Growth

The company’s revenue is projected to grow at a 5.3% CAGR, with annual growth rates tapering from 6% in 2024 to around 4% by 2027, reflecting a maturing yet still expanding business.

Gross Profit Margin

Contribution margin improves from 24.1% in 2023 to 27.9% by 2027, indicating stronger per‑dollar profitability as the firm extracts more value from its sales.

SG&A Expense Margin

SG&A as a percentage of revenue modestly declines from 20.8% to 20.2% and stabilizes near 20.5%, showing incremental efficiency gains as scale increases.

EBITDA Margin

EBITDA margin expands from 4.9% to 9.5% over the outlook, driven by rising contribution margins and controlled SG&A, underscoring improving operational profitability.

Financial Data

Income Statement Summary

metrics 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026A
Revenue $611.3B $648.1B $681.0B $713.2B
SG&A $127.1B $131.0B $139.9B -
Contribution Profit $147.6B $158.0B $169.2B $177.8B
Contribution Margin 24.1% 24.4% 24.9% 24.9%
EBITDA $30.1B $36.4B $42.0B $46.5B
EBITDA Margin 4.9% 5.6% 6.2% 6.5%
SG&A Margin 20.8% 20.2% 20.5% -
Revenue Growth - 6.0% 5.1% 4.7%

Credit & Cash Flow Metrics

metrics 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026A
Debt/Equity 0.70 0.68 0.62 0.63
Debt/Assets 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.24
EBITDA/Int Exp 14.7x 14.5x 15.5x 15.7x
Net Margin 1.9% 2.4% 2.9% 3.1%
Current Ratio 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Cash Flow to Debt Ratio 0.22 0.29 0.30 0.28

Financial Charts

EPS × PE Trend

EPS × PE Trend

Revenue YoY Growth

Revenue YoY Growth

EBITDA Margin Trend

EBITDA Margin Trend
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Data: Company Filings, FMP, Yahoo Finance, AI4Finance Estimates · Generated: 2026-07-02 12:32

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