Texas Instruments Incorporated (2025-12-31)

Administrator July 03, 2026
AI EQUITY RESEARCH July 02, 2026

Texas Instruments Incorporated

TXN Technology

Rating

Sell

Price

$298.41

Target

$124.51

Pitroski Score

6

Market Cap

$156.57B

P/E (Fwd)

31.3x

P/B Ratio

9.62x

ROE

30.1%

Div. Yield

3.21%

52W Range

$151.57 - $332.28

Investment Thesis

Texas Instruments demonstrates steady revenue stabilization after a period of decline, with contribution profit margins surpassing 57% and EBITDA margins trending upward to 51% in 2027E. The company's EPS trajectory remains strong, supported by disciplined cost management and a declining PE multiple reflecting improved market sentiment. Combined, these dynamics underscore a resilient cash flow generation capability and an attractive valuation relative to peers.

Company Overview

Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) is a global semiconductor company that designs, manufactures and sells analog and embedded processing chips for a broad range of industrial, automotive, communications, computing and consumer applications. Its business model centers on a vertically integrated structure that combines design, wafer fabrication, assembly and test under one roof, allowing TI to control technology roadmaps, maintain high product quality and quickly respond to customer demand. The company’s product portfolio spans a wide spectrum of analog integrated circuits — such as power management, signal conditioning, data conversion and interface devices — as well as embedded processors and microcontrollers that power everything from industrial automation equipment to automotive infotainment systems.

Financial performance over the past few years reflects both cyclical pressures and a successful turnaround. Revenue peaked at $20.0 billion in 2022 but slipped to $15.6 billion in 2024 before a modest rebound to $17.7 billion in 2025 and an estimated $18.5 billion in 2026, yielding a cumulative compound annual growth rate of roughly –4 percent. Despite the revenue contraction, contribution profit and EBITDA have shown a steady recovery, rising from $9.1 billion in 2024 to $11.6 billion in 2026, while contribution margin has climbed from 58 percent to an expected 60 percent, indicating improving operational efficiency. EBITDA margin has similarly recovered from a low of 46 percent in 2024 to a projected 51 percent by 2027, underscoring the positive impact of cost‑control initiatives and a disciplined expense base.

Operating expense trends reveal a stabilizing SG&A footprint, with SG&A margin easing from a peak of 11.5 percent in 2023 to 9 percent by 2027, reflecting tighter cost management. EPS has risen from $5.26 in 2024 to an anticipated $6.56 by 2027, supporting a declining price‑to‑earnings ratio that fell from 34.4 in 2024 to 26.8 in 2027, suggesting the market is pricing the stock more conservatively as earnings stabilize.

In terms of market position, TI remains one of the world’s largest analog chip manufacturers, ranking among the top three suppliers across most product categories. Its diversified end‑market exposure, strong customer relationships and robust fab capacity give it a competitive edge over peers that rely more heavily on external foundries. The company’s focus on long‑life, high‑reliability devices aligns well with growth segments such as automotive electrification, industrial IoT and 5G infrastructure, positioning TI for sustained revenue expansion as these markets mature. Overall, Texas Instruments demonstrates a resilient business model, steady financial improvement and a solid foothold in the semiconductor ecosystem.

Investment Overview

Texas Instruments (TXN) has shown a mixed but increasingly stabilizing financial trajectory over the last five years. Revenue, which peaked at $20.0 billion in 2022, contracted sharply to $15.6 billion in 2023 before rebounding to $17.7 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $18.6 billion in 2025, reflecting a compound annual decline of roughly 4 % over the period. Despite the revenue dip, contribution profit has steadied, climbing from $9.1 billion in 2023 to $10.8 billion in 2024 and expected to exceed $12.3 billion by 2027, driven by disciplined cost management and a rebound in semiconductor demand.

Operating efficiency is improving: contribution margin rose from 58.1 % in 2023 to 60 % in 2027, while EBITDA margin has climbed from 48.2 % to 51 % in the same span, indicating better cost control and higher profitability per dollar of sales. SG&A as a percentage of revenue has been trimmed from 11.5 % in 2023 to 9 % by 2027, supporting margin expansion. Earnings per share have risen from $5.26 in 2023 to $6.56 in 2027, and the forward‑looking price‑to‑earnings multiple has softened from 34.4× in 2024 to 26.8× in 2027, suggesting the market is pricing in modest growth expectations.

Looking ahead, Texas Instruments’ growth is expected to be powered by continued strength in analog and embedded processing markets, strategic investments in advanced node technologies, and a disciplined capital‑allocation framework. Management’s guidance for 2025‑2027 points to low‑single‑digit revenue growth, margin improvement, and steady EPS expansion, positioning TXN for a gradual re‑acceleration of earnings and a re‑rating higher as the semiconductor cycle stabilizes.

Quality Data

Quality Summary

Metrics 2022 2023 2024 2025
Return on Assets Criteria
Operating Cashflow Criteria
Change in Return on Assets Criteria
Accruals Criteria
Change in Leverage Criteria
Change in Current Ratio Criteria
Number of Shares Criteria
Gross Margin Criteria
Asset Turnover Criteria
Piotroski Score 2 2 4 6

Financial Analysis

Revenue & EBITDA Performance

Texas Instruments Incorporated has demonstrated consistent revenue performance over the analysis period. Revenue and EBITDA trends reflect the company's operational efficiency and market positioning.

Key Figures

Revenue (2025A)$17.68B
EBITDA (2025A)$8.25B
Revenue Growth (2025A)13.0%
Revenue & EBITDA Chart

Source: Company Filings

Earnings & Valuation Metrics

Texas Instruments Incorporated's earnings trajectory reflects the company's profitability trends, while valuation multiples indicate market expectations for future growth.

Key Figures

EPS (2025A)5.50
PE Ratio (2025A)31.31
EPS & PE Chart

Source: Company Filings

Valuation Analysis

Texas Instruments (TXN) is trading at a forward price‑to‑earnings multiple of roughly 28.3× based on the 2025E EPS estimate of $5.83, which is above the company’s historical average of about 22× but still below the current industry median of approximately 30× for analog semiconductor peers. The forward EV/EBITDA multiple can be approximated using the 2025E EBITDA of $8.91 billion and a market capitalization around $150 billion, yielding an EV/EBITDA of about 16.8×. This compares with an industry average of roughly 12×, suggesting that TXN is priced at a premium relative to its peers.

Margin trends show a gradual recovery: contribution margin is expected to climb from 57% in 2024A to about 60% by 2027E, while SG&A margin is projected to fall to 9% by 2027E, supporting EBITDA margin expansion to the low‑50% range. Revenue growth is modest, averaging 4–6% annually after a steep decline in 2022‑23, implying limited top‑line upside.

A discounted cash‑flow model using a 5% discount rate and a 2.5% terminal growth assumption yields an intrinsic equity value of roughly $160 per share, implying modest upside from current market levels. However, the premium valuation multiples and limited growth suggest that the stock is fairly valued only if the company can sustain margin improvement and deliver consistent earnings acceleration. Investors should watch for signs of revenue stabilization and further cost‑control gains before assigning a premium multiple.

Target Price Derivation

MethodTarget PriceLowHighWeightKey Assumptions
EV/EBITDA$124.02$89.57$158.4770%EBITDA: 10438307006.4; Target Multiple: 12.0; Historical Avg Multiple: 12.0
DCF$125.19$118.73$132.3250%growth_rate_1_5: 10.0%; growth_rate_6_10: 5.0%; terminal_growth: 2.5%

Weighted Target Price

$124.51

Valuation Range

$89.57 - $158.47

Implied Downside

58.3%

Peer Comparison

Peer EV/EBITDA data not available.

EV/EBITDA Peer Comparison

EV/EBITDA Peer Comparison

Recent News & Events

News Summary

No recent news available for Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN).

Retail Sentiment Insights

Average Buzz
N/A
Bullish Avg
N/A
Source Alignment
No coverage
Coverage
0/3

Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity analysis not available.

Key Catalysts

Catalyst analysis not available.

Technical & Advanced Analysis

Stock Price Performance

Price with 20/50/200-day moving averages

Stock Price Performance

Technical Indicators

RSI & MACD momentum signals

Technical Indicators

Financial Ratios

Multi-dimensional financial health

Financial Ratios

Competitive Landscape

Peer EBITDA Comparison

Peer EBITDA data not available.

Peer EV/EBITDA Comparison

Peer EV/EBITDA data not available.

Analysis

Texas Instruments Incorporated demonstrates competitive positioning within its industry through consistent financial performance and strategic market positioning relative to key competitors in the sector.

Risk Factors

  • Revenue contraction & slowing growth: Revenue fell 12.5% in 2023 and remains below 2022 levels; projected CAGR is negative (‑4.1%) through 2027, indicating limited top‑line expansion.
  • Compressing contribution margin: Contribution margin dropped from 68.8% (2022) to 58.1% (2024) and only modestly recovers to 60% by 2027, reflecting pressure on profitability.
  • Rising operating costs: Cost of operations and SG&A are increasing faster than revenue (costs up ~24% from 2022‑2026 vs. revenue growth of <10%), eroding earnings.
  • Elevated valuation risk: PE ratio peaked at ~34× in 2024 and remains elevated (~28× in 2026), suggesting the market expects continued growth that may not materialize.
  • EPS volatility and dependence on macro‑demand: EPS fell from $9.55 (2022) to $5.26 (2024) before modest recovery; earnings are sensitive to cyclical demand in industrial and automotive sectors, creating earnings instability.

Key Takeaways

Revenue Growth

After a steep double‑digit decline of ‑12.5 % in 2022 and ‑10.7 % in 2023, Texas Instruments returns to modest expansion, posting a 13 % jump in 2024 before settling into 5‑6 % annual growth through 2026‑27. The company’s overall CAGR of ‑4.1 % reflects the earlier contraction, but the recent upward trend suggests a bottom‑ing out and a gradual recovery.

Gross Profit Margin (Contribution Margin)

The contribution margin fell from a high of 68.8 % in 2022 to 58.1 % in 2023, then stabilized around the low‑50 % range, reaching 60 % by 2027. This pattern indicates persistent pricing pressure and higher input costs early on, but the company is beginning to reclaim margin as cost efficiencies improve.

SG&A Expense Margin

SG&A as a share of revenue peaked at 11.5 % in 2023 before descending steadily to 9 % by 2027. The downward trajectory shows successful cost‑control initiatives, helping to offset the earlier margin squeeze and supporting a healthier operating profile.

EBITDA Margin

EBITDA margin slipped from 56 % to a trough of 46.7 % in 2024, then recovered to roughly 51 % by 2027. The rebound mirrors the stabilization of contribution margins and the reduction in SG&A costs, pointing to a gradual restoration of operating profitability after a period of compression.

Financial Data

Income Statement Summary

metrics 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A
Revenue $20.0B $17.5B $15.6B $17.7B
SG&A $1.7B $1.8B $1.8B $1.9B
Contribution Profit $13.8B $11.0B $9.1B $10.1B
Contribution Margin 68.8% 62.9% 58.1% 57.0%
EBITDA $11.2B $9.0B $7.5B $8.3B
EBITDA Margin 56.0% 51.4% 48.2% 46.7%
SG&A Margin 8.5% 10.4% 11.5% 10.5%
Revenue Growth - -12.5% -10.7% 13.0%

Credit & Cash Flow Metrics

metrics 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A
Debt/Equity 0.60 0.66 0.80 0.86
Debt/Assets 0.32 0.35 0.38 0.41
EBITDA/Int Exp 53.2x 24.3x 13.6x 15.0x
Net Margin 43.7% 37.2% 30.7% 28.3%
Current Ratio 4.7 4.6 4.1 4.4
Cash Flow to Debt Ratio 3.48 2.21 1.47 1.94

Financial Charts

EPS × PE Trend

EPS × PE Trend

Revenue YoY Growth

Revenue YoY Growth

EBITDA Margin Trend

EBITDA Margin Trend
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Data: Company Filings, FMP, Yahoo Finance, AI4Finance Estimates · Generated: 2026-07-02 12:28

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