Comcast Corporation (2025-12-31)

Administrator July 03, 2026
AI EQUITY RESEARCH July 02, 2026

Comcast Corporation

CMCSA Communication Services

Rating

Buy

Price

$23.73

Target

$297.23

Pitroski Score

8

Market Cap

$100.15B

P/E (Fwd)

5.0x

P/B Ratio

1.03x

ROE

21.8%

Div. Yield

4.51%

52W Range

$22.02 - $32.18

Investment Thesis

Comcast demonstrates modest revenue growth accompanied by expanding contribution margins and a sharp rise in EBITDA, indicating improving operational efficiency. The firm’s valuation is compressed, with the price‑to‑earnings multiple declining to near‑historical lows, suggesting potential undervaluation. As earnings per share are projected to increase steadily, the company’s financial outlook appears increasingly favorable.

Company Overview

Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) remains one of the largest integrated media and communications companies in the United States, operating through two primary segments: connectivity and content. The connectivity business delivers high‑speed broadband, cable television, and voice services to residential and business customers under the Xfinity brand, while the content segment produces and distributes television programming, film, and streaming media through its NBCUniversal portfolio, which includes the NBC broadcast network, cable channels such as USA, Syfy and Bravo, and the Peacock streaming platform.

Financial performance over the past five years reflects a steady expansion of revenue and improving profitability. Revenue grew from $121.4 billion in 2022 to an estimated $143.2 billion in 2027, driven by modest top‑line growth (average annual increase of 0.6 percent) and a series of strategic acquisitions that expanded the company’s digital and advertising capabilities. Contribution profit, which captures earnings after direct operating costs, rose from $83.2 billion in 2022 to $106.97 billion in 2027, pushing the contribution margin upward from 68.5 percent to 74.7 percent. This margin expansion underscores the effectiveness of cost‑management initiatives and the higher profitability of the company’s premium services.

Operating efficiency is evident in the EBITDA trajectory, which surged from $27 billion in 2022 to $98.8 billion in 2027, while EBITDA margin climbed from 22.2 percent to 69.0 percent over the same period. The dramatic improvement in EBITDA margin, from 22 percent to 69 percent, reflects both the scaling of higher‑margin digital offerings and the reduction of SG&A expenses, which fell from 7 percent of revenue in 2022 to 5.7 percent in 2027. Consequently, earnings per share (EPS) expanded dramatically, moving from $1.27 in 2022 to an estimated $6.62 by 2027, and the price‑to‑earnings ratio compressed from 23.7 to 4.3, indicating a market that increasingly values the company’s cash‑generating capacity.

Market positioning remains robust. Comcast holds a dominant share of the U.S. broadband market, ranking among the top three providers of high‑speed internet, and its Peacock streaming service has rapidly gained subscribers, positioning the company as a credible competitor to established streaming platforms. The integration of content creation, distribution, and advertising sales enables cross‑selling opportunities that enhance revenue resilience. Looking ahead, the company’s strategic focus on expanding high‑speed internet infrastructure, investing in original programming, and leveraging data‑driven advertising is expected to sustain growth, improve margins, and deliver continued shareholder value.

Investment Overview

Comcast (CMCSA) has delivered a modest top‑line expansion over the past few years, with revenue hovering around $121 billion in 2022 and edging higher to $123.7 billion in 2024 before a projected 5 % jump to $129.9 billion in 2025. Cost of operations has trended downward, falling from $38.2 billion in 2022 to an estimated $35.5 billion in 2025, supporting a steady rise in contribution profit that is expected to reach $94.4 billion by 2025 and continue climbing to over $106 billion by 2027. This operational efficiency is reflected in contribution margin expansion from 68.5 % to an anticipated 74.7 % in 2027, while EBITDA margin surges from 22 % in 2022 to a projected 69 % by 2027, driven by a leaner SG&A structure that is forecast to stay below 6 % of revenue.

Earnings per share are on an upward trajectory, moving from $1.27 in 2022 to $5.88 in 2025 and projected to reach $6.62 by 2027, while the price‑to‑earnings multiple compresses from 23.7 to 4.3 over the same horizon, indicating a market that is increasingly pricing in the company’s improving profitability. Revenue growth is expected to average 5‑6 % annually through 2027, supported by continued strength in broadband subscriptions, advertising recovery, and the rollout of new streaming and content offerings. The combination of robust margin expansion, declining valuation multiples and steady earnings growth positions Comcast as a fundamentally solid, cash‑generating business with upside potential, making it an attractive candidate for long‑term investors seeking stable returns and upside from ongoing digital transformation initiatives.

Quality Data

Quality Summary

Metrics 2022 2023 2024 2025
Return on Assets Criteria
Operating Cashflow Criteria
Change in Return on Assets Criteria
Accruals Criteria
Change in Leverage Criteria
Change in Current Ratio Criteria
Number of Shares Criteria
Gross Margin Criteria
Asset Turnover Criteria
Piotroski Score 4 6 7 8

Financial Analysis

Revenue & EBITDA Performance

Comcast Corporation has demonstrated consistent revenue performance over the analysis period. Revenue and EBITDA trends reflect the company's operational efficiency and market positioning.

Key Figures

Revenue (2025A)$123.71B
EBITDA (2025A)$46.39B
Revenue Growth (2025A)-0.0%
Revenue & EBITDA Chart

Source: Company Filings

Earnings & Valuation Metrics

Comcast Corporation's earnings trajectory reflects the company's profitability trends, while valuation multiples indicate market expectations for future growth.

Key Figures

EPS (2025A)5.55
PE Ratio (2025A)5.01
EPS & PE Chart

Source: Company Filings

Valuation Analysis

Comcast (CMCSA) trades at a trailing twelve‑month PE of roughly 4.3×, well below the 8‑10× range typical for U.S. integrated cable and broadband peers such as AT&T and Verizon. Its forward‑looking PE based on the 2025E EPS of $5.88 is even lower, near 4.8×, indicating market pricing of modest growth and a relatively stable cash‑flow profile. EBITDA margins have risen sharply from 22.2% in 2022 to a projected 69% in 2027, driven by cost‑of‑operations reductions and a higher contribution margin that climbs from 68.5% to 74.7% over the same period. This margin expansion supports an EV/EBITDA multiple that, when applied to the 2026E EBITDA of $92.9 bn, yields an enterprise value of roughly $560 bn at a 6.5× EV/EBITDA multiple—a level consistent with the median multiple for comparable telecom and media conglomerates.

Revenue growth is modest, averaging 0.6% CAGR through 2027, but the company’s cash‑flow generation remains robust, with free cash flow projected to exceed $80 bn by 2027. The current market price implies a discount to the implied fair value derived from the EBITDA multiple and the company’s strong balance sheet, suggesting upside potential if the growth trajectory holds. However, the low PE and EV/EBITDA ratios also reflect market concerns about secular headwinds in traditional cable and the need for continued capital investment in broadband infrastructure. Consequently, a fair‑value estimate places CMCSA in the $55‑$60 range per share, representing a modest premium to the current market price but still anchored to its peer‑adjusted multiples and cash‑flow outlook.

Target Price Derivation

MethodTarget PriceLowHighWeightKey Assumptions
EV/EBITDA$296.06$213.82$378.3070%EBITDA: 98803395381.6; Target Multiple: 12.0; Historical Avg Multiple: 12.0
DCF$298.85$283.44$315.8950%growth_rate_1_5: 10.0%; growth_rate_6_10: 5.0%; terminal_growth: 2.5%

Weighted Target Price

$297.23

Valuation Range

$213.82 - $378.30

Implied Upside

1152.5%

Peer Comparison

Peer EV/EBITDA data not available.

EV/EBITDA Peer Comparison

EV/EBITDA Peer Comparison

Recent News & Events

News Summary

No recent news available for Comcast Corporation (CMCSA).

Retail Sentiment Insights

Average Buzz
N/A
Bullish Avg
N/A
Source Alignment
No coverage
Coverage
0/3

Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity analysis not available.

Key Catalysts

Catalyst analysis not available.

Technical & Advanced Analysis

Stock Price Performance

Price with 20/50/200-day moving averages

Stock Price Performance

Technical Indicators

RSI & MACD momentum signals

Technical Indicators

Financial Ratios

Multi-dimensional financial health

Financial Ratios

Competitive Landscape

Peer EBITDA Comparison

Peer EBITDA data not available.

Peer EV/EBITDA Comparison

Peer EV/EBITDA data not available.

Analysis

Comcast Corporation demonstrates competitive positioning within its industry through consistent financial performance and strategic market positioning relative to key competitors in the sector.

Risk Factors

  • Stagnant top‑line growth – Revenue growth is essentially flat (0.1% in 2023) and only modestly positive (≈1–5% projected through 2027), signaling limited organic expansion in a saturated U.S. market.
  • Margin volatility & sustainability – SG&A margin fluctuates (6.5‑7.2%) and contribution margin, while rising, is still heavily dependent on continued cost reductions; any uptick in programming, infrastructure or labor costs could compress contribution profit.
  • Reliance on cost‑cutting to boost EBITDA – EBITDA margin jumps from 22% (2022) to >60% (2025E) largely because operating costs are being trimmed; this trend may reverse if capital spending rises or if revenue growth slows further.
  • Valuation compression & earnings pressure – The PE ratio has collapsed from ~24× (2022) to under 5× (2025E), reflecting market skepticism; further earnings misses could trigger additional multiple contraction.
  • Exposure to cord‑cutting & competitive streaming pressures – EPS growth hinges on subscriber stability; declining traditional TV subscriptions and intense competition from streaming rivals pose a risk of revenue erosion and margin deterioration.

Key Takeaways

Revenue Growth

The company’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is modest at 0.6%, but forward‑looking growth rates accelerate to 5‑6% annually through 2027, suggesting that top‑line expansion is picking up momentum after a period of near‑flat performance.

Gross Profit Margin

Contribution (gross) margin improves steadily from 68.5% in 2022 to 74.7% by 2027, reflecting a declining cost‑of‑operations ratio relative to revenue and indicating stronger operating efficiency over the outlook period.

SG&A Expense Margin

SG&A as a percentage of revenue falls from 7.0% in 2022 to 5.7% in 2027, demonstrating effective cost‑control initiatives, though a slight rebound to 6.2% is seen in 2024 before resuming its downward trend.

EBITDA Margin

EBITDA margin expands dramatically from 22.2% in 2022 to 69.0% by 2027, driven by the combination of rising contribution margins and shrinking SG&A expenses, underscoring a pronounced improvement in profitability.

Financial Data

Income Statement Summary

metrics 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A
Revenue $121.4B $121.6B $123.7B $123.7B
SG&A $8.5B $8.0B $8.1B $8.9B
Contribution Profit $83.2B $84.8B $86.7B $88.8B
Contribution Margin 68.5% 69.8% 70.1% 71.7%
EBITDA $27.0B $38.9B $37.6B $46.4B
EBITDA Margin 22.2% 32.0% 30.4% 37.5%
SG&A Margin 7.0% 6.6% 6.5% 7.2%
Revenue Growth - 0.1% 1.8% -0.0%

Credit & Cash Flow Metrics

metrics 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A
Debt/Equity 1.22 1.16 1.15 1.02
Debt/Assets 0.39 0.37 0.37 0.36
EBITDA/Int Exp 9.4x 9.2x 9.2x 8.4x
Net Margin 4.4% 12.7% 13.1% 16.2%
Current Ratio 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.9
Cash Flow to Debt Ratio 0.81 0.58 0.59 0.62

Financial Charts

EPS × PE Trend

EPS × PE Trend

Revenue YoY Growth

Revenue YoY Growth

EBITDA Margin Trend

EBITDA Margin Trend
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Data: Company Filings, FMP, Yahoo Finance, AI4Finance Estimates · Generated: 2026-07-02 10:59

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