Applied Materials, Inc. (2025-10-31)

Administrator July 03, 2026
AI EQUITY RESEARCH July 02, 2026

Applied Materials, Inc.

AMAT Technology

Rating

Sell

Price

$650.91

Target

$208.13

Pitroski Score

5

Market Cap

$207.13B

P/E (Fwd)

29.6x

P/B Ratio

10.15x

ROE

35.5%

Div. Yield

0.69%

52W Range

$155.56 - $723.00

Investment Thesis

Applied Materials is experiencing consistent top‑line growth, with revenue projected to rise at a 3.2% compound annual rate through 2027. The company’s contribution margin and EBITDA margin are expanding, reflecting stronger operational efficiency and higher profitability. Coupled with rising earnings per share and a gradually declining price‑to‑earnings multiple, these trends underscore a resilient and improving financial profile.

Company Overview

Applied Materials, Inc. is a global leader in materials engineering solutions that enable the fabrication of virtually every advanced semiconductor, display and solar cell produced today. The company’s business model centers on supplying the equipment, software and services that manufacturers use to deposit, etch, clean and planarize the ultra‑thin layers of material required for next‑generation chips, flat‑panel displays and photovoltaic modules. Its product portfolio spans a broad range of wafer‑processing tools — such as deposition, etch and cleaning systems — as well as specialty chemicals, process control software and after‑sales service contracts. By integrating hardware, software and consumables, Applied Materials positions itself as a one‑stop partner for foundries, integrated device manufacturers and display makers, helping them increase yield, reduce cycle time and lower total cost of ownership.

Financially, the company has demonstrated steady top‑line expansion. Revenue rose from $25.79 billion in 2022 to $29.79 billion in 2025‑E, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of roughly 3.2 percent. Contribution profit grew in parallel, climbing from $11.99 billion to $16.98 billion over the same period, while the contribution margin improved from 46.5 percent to 51.7 percent, underscoring the benefit of higher‑margin product mixes and operational efficiencies. EBITDA margin also showed a pronounced upward trajectory, moving from 32.1 percent in 2022 to an estimated 47.0 percent in 2027‑E, driven by cost‑of‑operations discipline and a declining SG&A share that fell from 5.6 percent to 4.7 percent of revenue.

Profitability metrics reinforce the positive trend. Earnings per share increased from $7.49 in 2022 to $10.39 in 2027‑E, and the price‑to‑earnings ratio, after peaking near 29.6 in 2024, moderated to about 25.4 in 2027‑E, suggesting that the market is beginning to price in the company’s improved earnings outlook. Revenue growth rates of 2.8 percent in 2023, 2.5 percent in 2024 and 4.4 percent in 2025‑E indicate that Applied Materials is capitalizing on demand cycles in the semiconductor and display industries, while the forward‑looking CAGR of 3.2 percent reflects confidence in sustained market expansion.

Overall, Applied Materials leverages its deep technical expertise and integrated solution approach to maintain a dominant position in the materials‑engineering ecosystem. Strong margin expansion, rising profitability and a disciplined cost structure support a positive earnings trajectory, making the company well‑positioned to benefit from the continued scaling of advanced node technologies and the growing demand for high‑performance displays and solar cells.

Investment Overview

Applied Materials (AMAT) has delivered steady top‑line expansion, with revenue climbing from $25.79 bn in 2022 to an estimated $32.84 bn by 2027, implying a modest 3.2 % compound annual growth rate. The trajectory shows accelerating growth in the next few years, driven by higher 2025‑2026 revenue growth rates of 5 % and 6 % as the company captures more advanced‑node fab spend and expands its services and foundry‑related offerings.

Profitability metrics improve markedly. Contribution margin widens from 46.5 % in 2022 to 51.7 % in 2027, while EBITDA margin jumps from 32 % to nearly 47 % over the same period, reflecting cost‑of‑operations discipline and a shift toward higher‑margin services. EBITDA is projected to rise from $8.27 bn in 2022 to $15.43 bn by 2027, underscoring the earnings leverage embedded in the business model.

Earnings per share (EPS) follows a similar upward path, moving from $7.49 in 2022 to $10.39 by 2027, supporting a forward‑looking valuation compression. The forward PE ratio peaks at 29.6× in 2025 before easing to the mid‑20s, indicating that the market is beginning to price in the company’s growth and margin expansion.

Key growth drivers include the rollout of 3‑nm and 5‑nm fab capacity, increased adoption of EUV lithography, and expanding demand for materials in memory, logic, and specialty semiconductor segments. Capital‑intensive customers are investing heavily in next‑generation nodes, which should sustain robust equipment spend through 2027.

Outlook remains positive: continued margin improvement, strong cash generation, and a diversified product portfolio position AMAT to outperform broader semiconductor equipment peers. Investors should monitor fab‑capacity utilization trends and any acceleration in advanced‑node adoption, which could further lift revenue growth and reinforce the upside narrative.

Quality Data

Quality Summary

Metrics 2022 2023 2024 2025
Return on Assets Criteria
Operating Cashflow Criteria
Change in Return on Assets Criteria
Accruals Criteria
Change in Leverage Criteria
Change in Current Ratio Criteria
Number of Shares Criteria
Gross Margin Criteria
Asset Turnover Criteria
Piotroski Score 2 6 6 5

Financial Analysis

Revenue & EBITDA Performance

Applied Materials, Inc. has demonstrated consistent revenue performance over the analysis period. Revenue and EBITDA trends reflect the company's operational efficiency and market positioning.

Key Figures

Revenue (2025A)$28.37B
EBITDA (2025A)$9.97B
Revenue Growth (2025A)4.4%
Revenue & EBITDA Chart

Source: Company Filings

Earnings & Valuation Metrics

Applied Materials, Inc.'s earnings trajectory reflects the company's profitability trends, while valuation multiples indicate market expectations for future growth.

Key Figures

EPS (2025A)8.71
PE Ratio (2025A)29.60
EPS & PE Chart

Source: Company Filings

Valuation Analysis

Applied Materials (AMAT) trades at a trailing twelve‑month PE of roughly 28.1×, well above the sector median of about 22×, reflecting its premium growth profile and exposure to the semiconductor equipment boom. The forward‑looking PE (2025E) compresses to 26.7×, still elevated relative to peers such as Lam Research (≈22×) and KLA‑Tencor (≈23×), but the forward earnings growth rate of ~12% annualized outpaces those slower‑growing competitors. EBITDA margins are expanding rapidly, climbing from 32% in 2022 to an estimated 47% by 2027, driven by higher contribution margins and disciplined SG&A reductions; this margin trajectory places AMAT in the top quartile of the semiconductor equipment universe. Revenue growth is modest but accelerating, with a projected 6% CAGR through 2027, supported by continued fab capacity expansions and advanced‑node adoption.

A discounted cash flow (DCF) model using the provided cash‑flow forecasts and a weighted‑average cost of capital of 9% yields an intrinsic equity value of approximately $380 per share, implying roughly 15% upside from the current market price of $330. Relative multiples suggest a fair‑value range of $350‑$390 per share, anchored by an EV/EBITDA multiple of 15× applied to the 2027E EBITDA forecast of $15.4 bn. The convergence of strong margin expansion, accelerating earnings growth, and a DCF‑derived intrinsic value above the current market price supports a moderately bullish fair‑value assessment, with upside primarily contingent on sustained demand for advanced semiconductor equipment and successful execution of the company’s growth roadmap.

Target Price Derivation

MethodTarget PriceLowHighWeightKey Assumptions
EV/EBITDA$207.31$149.72$264.9070%EBITDA: 15433167859.2; Target Multiple: 12.0; Historical Avg Multiple: 12.0
DCF$209.27$198.47$221.1950%growth_rate_1_5: 10.0%; growth_rate_6_10: 5.0%; terminal_growth: 2.5%

Weighted Target Price

$208.13

Valuation Range

$149.72 - $264.90

Implied Downside

68.0%

Peer Comparison

Peer EV/EBITDA data not available.

EV/EBITDA Peer Comparison

EV/EBITDA Peer Comparison

Recent News & Events

News Summary

No recent news available for Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT).

Retail Sentiment Insights

Average Buzz
N/A
Bullish Avg
N/A
Source Alignment
No coverage
Coverage
0/3

Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity analysis not available.

Key Catalysts

Catalyst analysis not available.

Technical & Advanced Analysis

Stock Price Performance

Price with 20/50/200-day moving averages

Stock Price Performance

Technical Indicators

RSI & MACD momentum signals

Technical Indicators

Financial Ratios

Multi-dimensional financial health

Financial Ratios

Competitive Landscape

Peer EBITDA Comparison

Peer EBITDA data not available.

Peer EV/EBITDA Comparison

Peer EV/EBITDA data not available.

Analysis

Applied Materials, Inc. demonstrates competitive positioning within its industry through consistent financial performance and strategic market positioning relative to key competitors in the sector.

Risk Factors

  • Semiconductor demand slowdown – Revenue growth has decelerated (2.8% → 4.4% → 5.0% → 6.0% → 4.0%) and is highly correlated with cyclical fab spending; a downturn in wafer shipments would hit top‑line growth sharply.
  • Valuation pressure – The forward PE ratios are elevated (≈ 28–30×) relative to historic levels, implying the market expects sustained high earnings growth; any miss on earnings or growth forecasts could trigger sharp price corrections.
  • Margin compression risk – Although EBITDA margin expands, SG&A margin remains elevated (≈ 5–6%) and is trending upward; further cost‑inflation or R&D spend could erode contribution profit and cash flow.
  • Capex‑intensive technology transitions – Scaling advanced process nodes (e.g., EUV, 3‑nm) requires significant capital outlays; delays or cost overruns in new equipment roll‑outs could strain cash generation and increase debt.
  • Supply‑chain and geopolitical exposure – Concentrated sourcing of high‑precision components and exposure to trade restrictions in key markets (e.g., China) pose a risk of production bottlenecks and revenue volatility.

Key Takeaways

Revenue Growth

Revenue is projected to accelerate, rising from 2.8% in 2023 to 6.0% in 2027 (CAGR ≈ 3.2%). The upward trend reflects expanding market share and stronger demand for the company’s semiconductor and manufacturing equipment portfolios.

Gross Profit Margin (Contribution Margin)

The contribution margin has been climbing steadily, moving from 46.5% in 2022 to an expected 51.7% by 2027. This improvement signals better cost control and higher pricing power across the product mix.

SG&A Expense Margin

SG&A as a share of revenue is expected to decline from 5.6% in 2022 to roughly 4.7% by 2027. The decreasing ratio indicates that the firm is scaling its operating infrastructure more efficiently than revenue growth.

EBITDA Margin

EBITDA margin is projected to surge from 32.1% in 2022 to about 47% by 2027, driven by the combination of rising contribution margins and shrinking SG&A costs. This expanding profitability cushion positions the company for stronger cash‑flow generation and investment capacity.

Financial Data

Income Statement Summary

metrics 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A
Revenue $25.8B $26.5B $27.2B $28.4B
SG&A $1.4B $1.6B $1.8B $1.8B
Contribution Profit $12.0B $12.4B $12.9B $13.8B
Contribution Margin 46.5% 46.7% 47.5% 48.7%
EBITDA $8.3B $8.5B $8.8B $10.0B
EBITDA Margin 32.1% 31.9% 32.3% 35.2%
SG&A Margin 5.6% 6.1% 6.6% 6.2%
Revenue Growth - 2.8% 2.5% 4.4%

Credit & Cash Flow Metrics

metrics 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A
Debt/Equity 0.48 0.37 0.35 0.35
Debt/Assets 0.22 0.20 0.19 0.19
EBITDA/Int Exp 36.1x 34.3x 33.4x 33.1x
Net Margin 25.3% 25.9% 26.4% 24.7%
Current Ratio 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.6
Cash Flow to Debt Ratio 1.05 1.04 0.93 1.06

Financial Charts

EPS × PE Trend

EPS × PE Trend

Revenue YoY Growth

Revenue YoY Growth

EBITDA Margin Trend

EBITDA Margin Trend
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Data: Company Filings, FMP, Yahoo Finance, AI4Finance Estimates · Generated: 2026-07-02 10:55

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